With two of its five years of present term already gone Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina led Grand Alliance Government has several challenges that it must confront and overcome some visible and invisible crisis to lead the nation out of uncertainties. Prices of essential continues to remain well above common citizens reach, parliament is virtually nonfunctional, power and energy crisis continues to haunt civic life and impede economic growth, excesses of party cadre remains uncontrolled, serious grid locks in major cities makes life miserable. Government of pro liberation force installed in power with massive popular mandate failed to live up to its election pledges in many different areas.
Visible failures overshadowed some notable success in some areas. Law and order situation in general has improved. Framers getting power, diesel, and fertilizer in a much simpler way. They are reciprocating with bumper crops. Government could complete first phase of implementation of court verdict about gruesome murder of the father of the nation and could start the trial process of liberation war criminals. Government could break the ice of uneasy relation with major neighbor. But the implementation process of several milestone understanding reached during summit meeting between leaders of India and Bangladesh is proceeding at snail’s pace. Government initiated several projects to improve power supply and fuel supply situation. Government initiated some actions to confront grid lock sin major cities.
Some mega projects are in the offing.Government has commited to provide transit to neighbors through Bangladesh and earn transit through India for trade with Nepal and Bhutan. People must be clearly told about the benefit nation would get from these. Government vowed to clear rivers and waterways from unauthorized occupation.But the progress is minimum. Bangladeshi wage earners are largest contributors to national economy .But wage earners in different countries are getting harassed due to negligence of Bangladeshi diplomats. Bangladesh is losing access to foreign labor market for lack of appropriate diplomacy. RMG sector is on the verge of collapse for energy insecurity and aggressive labor politics triggered from conspiracy of an identied quarter. Business and trade also suffers from uncontrolled excesses of student, youth and labor front of the ruling party. Some talk shop ministers and incompetent advisors are continuously making laughable statements . Prime Minter is trying her level best .But her inexperienced failed cabinet colleagues cannot control smart beauracracy. Moreover due to continued politicization administration has become almost nonfunctional.
People of Bangladesh are mostly peace loving. Most of the people are happy with two square meal and sleep in secured environment. But despite success of Agriculture and food ministries failure of Commerce ministry could not control market syndicate. TCB is still not active. Dishonest traders, middle men creates artificial crisis of various commodities very often. There is no reason why price of Rice, pulses, onion and edible oil should reamin sky high. Why Government’s market intelligence is not working well. There are very few political programs, hartals. But hoarders and transport mafia syndicates are still making hay under the active patronage of ruling party cadres. Government’s popularity will drastically go down if it fails to arrest price spirals of essential with appropriate market actions in 2011.Government must be relentless in crashing market syndicate even if these are party cadres.
Next in priority must be taking more focused and proactive actions on power and energy sector. The over ambitious mega plans of power sector is on the verge of failure. The initiative of liquid fuel based contingency power plants and peaking plants failed to improve situation in two years. Most of the ruling party leaning entrepreneurs has failed to set up and commission plants in time. The hyperactive initiatives of coal and LNG import are also destined to fail. Government failed to initiate mining of own coal and conclude PSC for offshore exploration of Petroleum. Some blessed desk officers getting opportunity to lead the power and energy sector danced to the tune of opportunist sector leader and misguided policy makers. With only thre years left power and energy situation is unlikely to see major improvement before 2015.Government without delay must give green signal to explore own coal and set up mine mouth coal power plants. Government must instruct Petrobangla to go for fresh bidding round at offshore and onshore for petroleum exploration.
Dhaka and City are suffering from major gas crisis. Every year in Winter Citizens of Dhaka Metropolis suffer from acute gas crisis. Lower diameter distribution pipelines and condensation of gas liquids in low temperature are blamed. This year inadequate gas transportation capacity added new dimension. TGTDCL is believed to have refurbished its Dhaka City Network with higher diameter feeder mains. New Gas connections are stopped for a while. Situation must not deteriorate as being seen on media if there have not been massive illegal connections and unauthorized use of gas. Why not transmission system regularly pigged? Why not distribution system regularly purged to keep them clean of liquid deposition? Present Government placed its trusted persons in Petrobangla management. Their failure must be treated as government failure.Petro Bangla in two years failed to explore and develop any new gas field. The so called increase came from Bibiyana and Bhagura fields where present regime has no credit. Bringing back Meghna , and two wells at Titas and Habiganj were not outstanding. BAPEX has strated some works .These may give some relief. But continued failure of GTCL in implementing Gas Transmission infrastructures implementation will prolong gas crisis. Under present top management GTCL has almost lost its past dynamism. GTCL must be made to implement HGas Pipeline compressor project and other gas infrastructures expeditiously.PM Hasina must ask Petrobangla what the nation gained in expanding gas transmission network to Rajshahi? Why this moneyt and efforts could not be utilized for upstream transmission infrastructures/ Why GTCL failed to operate and maintain SCADA professionally? Why it could not carry out on stream pigging? Why professionals expreinced in Gas Transmission were removed from GTCL to other companies? Whhat useful purpose the senior most gas professional is serving being OSD in EMRD?
Chittagong is suffering from chronic gas crisis and induced power crisis. Some opportunists misguided policy makers about LNG import. It could be an option if floating LNG terminal could be anchored beside Shangu offshore platform and use Shangu offshore pipeline > But draft and other issues did not make it feasible> Now government is proceeding with a plan to set up LNG plant at Maheskhali , build 90 KM transmission pipeline. This multi billion dollar investment will soon prove unworkable. Government failed in striking a deal with Qatar for LNG import. It will soon prove a futile exercise. Chittagong market demand could be better addressed approving Santos proposal in time facilitating them further develop Shangu and Shangu South.
Ill motivated misguided Petrobangla and EMRD delayed actions rendering Santos works in current dry season impossible. Chittagong is deprived of possible 40MMCFD additional gas from April 2011. We do not consider that awarding Offshore PSC to Conocco Philips in present circumstance will be smart move. It can not finally carry out meaningful exploration on the basis of current proposal and will find excuse not to proceed after some initial works. Government must explore what led to major IOCs not to participate in Offshore bidding round. Negative propaganda of Myanmar and India are not only reasons. Offshore Model PSC 2008 does not have required incentives for IOCs to risk massive investment . Under this model PSC if bidding is invited again it will meet same fate of poor response. In 2011 government must take the following actions in Energy Sector on Priority Basis.
# Approve Coal policy and initiate mining of own coal without delay. Would be affected community must be adequately compensated, properly rehabilitated. The works of mining companies must be intensively monitored ensuing its environmental, social impacts management and water management.
# Start setting up mine mouth coal plant.
# Set up a committee to review Model PSC #2008 and within June 2011 go for fresh bidding round on the basis amended PSC document both for offshore and onshore.
# Open downstream segments of Gas value chain for private sector and monitor the ongoing gas infrastructure projects implementation intensively. In the present situation Public sector alone cannot successfully confront the challenges of gas transmission and distribution. Without proper transmission infrastructure professionally planned and skillfully operated the present gas supply crisis cannot be overcome. Stranded gas at source will mean nothing.
# Assess objectively the performance of Gas sector top management and make changes wherever necessary before more damages are done.
#Reconstitute Board of Directors of Petrobangla and Gas Companies with experienced line professionals.
Power sector is seriously handicapped with lack of fuel supply , existence of poor performing old aged power units and fund crisis. The mega plan for over ambitious general plan was not well conceived. We are not sure that required home works were done about fuel availability. Coal import in short term and LNG import as envisaged are impossible. Required gas supply may not be also available. Two plants commissioned at Siddhirganj and Shikalbaha can not operate property. Shiddhirganj and Shikalbaha may not get required gas supply soon. Plan to set up large coal based power plants at Chittagong and Mongla may not see day light soon. In this situation Government musyt take the following priority actions.
# Replace the averaged plants at Ghorashal, Ashuganj, Shilkalbaha, Siddhirganj with modern fuel efficient plants.Power sector is getting about 800MMCFD gas supply. With this supply modern power plants should generate 6000MW without any problem.
# Set up some large coal fired mine mouth power plants at Phulbari and Barapukuria contingent upon commencement of mining. A large enough power plant may be set up at Ishwardi as well.
# Support selected investor in all possible ways in Bibiyana 1 & 2 and Meghna ghat 2 power plant implementation.
If only the above actions are correctly taken present government can find meaningful improvement of power and energy crisis by 2015.
Helpless citizen will suffer seriously from gas, power crisis in January, February and from March water crisis will be added to this making life miserable. Government without blaming predecessors must try to bring people with them and listen to what patriotic professionals of proven track record as energy professionals suggest.
Law & Order Situation:
Government must dissociate itself from party and alliance.Garnd alliance government will definitely implement its election pledge. But in running government affairs all citizen irrespective of political belief must be treated equally. Campus excesses of ruling party student front and excess of youth front must be curved. Criminals and anti-social elements must not get safe cover of ruling party. Government must not try to gain political mileage from war criminals trial or in delaing with some major criminal acts of the past.Police and civil administration must be allowed to work for the nation .If trail of war criminals and other crimes are conducted fairly and neutrally people will stand behind these. It is very natural that anti-Bangladesh elements will create crisis. The crisis in RMG sector definitely has indulgence of anti-state elements. Governmenyts intelligence agencies are continuously failing to comprehend in time or abetting those elements. Government must deal with RMG sector crisis judiciously.All dealings with India must be discussed openly in parliament. Opposition must also return to parliament and through debates and discussions keep government honest. Government must clearly tell people how Bangladesh is going to be benefitted from transit and letting India, Nepal, Bhutan, China use our port facilities. No country must get transit without following international norms .Host country must get transit tariif of whatever is transitted Government must also engage more professionally with neighbors to resolve maritime and land boundary disputes.Government has initiated some milestone projects in the communication sector. Pallasy Jatrabari elevated expressway implementation is proceeding smoothly. Works on 4 lane Dhaka-Chittagong Highway has also commenced. Elevated Express Highway from Shahjalal Airport to Narayanganj may start soon. Government failed to start implementation of Historic Padma Multipurpose bridge as promised by December 2010. People are wasting several work hours being stuck in serious grid locks in Dhaka City. There are some serious allegations against Communication minister in some project implementations. Government must take some bitter decisions to improve traffic congestions in the city.BBG [Bangladesh Border Guards] Headquarter from Peelkahana, Army Head Quarter must be moved out of the city, all RMG factories must be relocated from City Centre. Various n ministry must be spread across Dhaka City suburbs in Naryanganj, Munshiganj, Manikganj, Gazipoor . In this age of digitization why we need a centralized government secretariat?Central Office of BAL from Gullistan and BNP from where it is must be moved out .These offices create traffic congestions whenever they have any program. Whatever is done unless these actions are taken go to Dhaka Stream cannot be stopped. Grid locks cannot be solved. Utility services will fail to improve supply.
If politicians have minimum respect to democracy they must develop democratic culture of patience anfd mutual respect .Parliament must be the palce of all decisions. Opposition is shadow government. Highest court has declared 5th and 7th amendm,ent to constitution null and void. Nation must return to original consititution of 1972 based on idealks of liberation war. Keep the fundamentals intact parliament may make it time tested. But any major change of constitution must be offered to voters for their approval.
All patriotic citizen must realize that Bangladesh still has huge potential to turn into an emerging tiger if our actions are transparent and democracy survives. We can expect anti liberation forces and war criminals get due punishment by end 2011. But nation will definitely like to witness visible improvement in energy& power crisis, strong actions against eve teasing, better control of prices of essentials, improvement of traffic congestions, participatory democracy with active parliament, better control of corruptions in year 2011.If not government of Grand Alliance may again be blown away through mass upsurge or democracy may again be thrown in serious challenge.